MA-05: Election Results Open Thread

9:19PM: Tsongas declares victory.  Nothing to be too proud of in this D+10.7 district, I’m sorry to say.
9:09PM: I’m hearing that local TV stations are calling it for Tsongas.
9:06PM: BMG says Tsongas is up by 2100 votes with 147 of 196 precincts reporting.
9:02PM: With 96 of 195 precincts reporting, Tsongas is down 46%-51%.

Update: Results can be found here.  So far we’re at 59%-38% Tsongas, with only 6 of 195 precincts reporting.  Plenty of time for that lead to come back down to earth.

It’s decision day in MA-05, where voters are going to the polls to select a replacement for Democrat Marty Meehan in the House.  We’ll update this thread as developments occur.  Turnout has been described as “light”, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether that benefits Republican Jim Ogonowski or Democrat Niki Tsongas right now, but I’m a bit nervous.  Polls close at 8pm Eastern.

Since we still have time, let’s do a prediction contest.  (No prizes, though, other than honor and glory.)  Post your prediction for how the race will end up in the comments (percentages, please).  Remember that there are a few independent candidates in the fray, as well.

One final note, for now… I sincerely hope that this doesn’t turn out to be a microcosm for the broader campaign:

Jim Ogonowski may be a political newcomer, but the Republican has learned a thing or two during his first run for elective office.

Today, the final day before voters go to the polls in a special election to replace former Rep. Martin Meehan, Ogonowski sprinted up and down the line of cars waiting at a Dunkin’ Donuts drive-thru, seizing upon the captive audience – and open driver-side windows – to pass out campaign literature.

“Every vote counts,” the farmer and former Air Force lieutenant colonel told one driver. “We’re that close.”

Democrat Niki Tsongas, the other headliner in the race, employed a slightly less frenetic pace, visiting several senior centers and holding an ice cream social as she sought to claim for herself the House seat once held by her late husband and 1992 presidential contender, Paul Tsongas.

45 thoughts on “MA-05: Election Results Open Thread”

  3. Like a 2 or 3% victory.

    Dems in DC need to know that putting up the same old mushy generic limousine Democrat is not going to work this cycle.  They need to know that voters are demanding real change, and aren’t willing to turn out for the culture of caution we’ve been getting.  Something needs to convince DC Dems that what they’re doing is not good enough and is not going to get the election results they’re obviously salivating over, and Niki Tsongas nearly losing might do it.

    Paul Hackett showed Dems how to win in 2005, and then Ned Lamont did the same in 2006.  If Niki Tsongas shows Dems how to lose, and they take that message to heart as well, she might do us all some good.

    Of course, the 06 results, where cautious Dems lost in PA-06 and CT-05 and IL-06 and TN-Sen and OH-15 and NY-26, while spunky challengers did WAY better than expected in a boatload of districts, should have taught them that.  But in the flush of victory they didn’t notice.  Maybe this election will make the point.

  4. and predict Tsongas with 55%. That may seem a bit high, but Ogonowski is relying on Independents while Tsongas is relying onpartisans and in a “light” turnout I’d sure be nervous relying on flaky independents. The machine will turn out a vote for Tsongas…hopefully

  5. though I’m a student out of state, and I’m not there to watch it first hand. I visited home over Columbus weekend and was disturbed by the number of Ogonowski signs I saw. I want to believe that Niki will pull this one out, but I’m just not sure.

    As for my numbers, I’ll go with:
    Tsongas 50%
    Ogonowski 48%

  6. it’s almost eight, so they should be closing soon, right?  i checked the mass secretary of states’ page, but couldn’t find anything, nor did the bostone globe or herald have any information.  anyone have a good website to go when the results come in?

    2. Lois Murphy lost in PA-06 because she allowed her opponent to define her as a liberal tax-hiker. It didn’t hurt that Jim Gerlach’s campaign was widely deemed the best run of any incumbent running in 2006.

      CT-05 was won by Chris Murphy. I assume your referring to CT-04, another rematch between a liberal female Democrat and a male Republican incumbent. Democrat Farrell, like Lois Murphy, outspent her opponent and still lost. This is largely due to Farrell’s poor campaign skills, Mayor Bloomberg’s crack team of grassroots organizers, and Lieberman’s coattails.

      IL-06 is a long story. Internecine conflict + GOP with a huge warchest + district that’s traditionally Republican + terrible DCCC ads + Democratic candidate who was a carpetbagger = D loss.

      NY-26 stayed in GOP hands because of a freak snowstorm and the Democratic candidate’s eccentricity.

      TN-SEN turned on issues of race and the state’s GOP bent. Harold Ford running an ad in a church is not a sign of a “cautious” candidate.

    3. and Mary Jo Kilroy as a cautious Dem. It was one of the most brutal races in the country and a lot of folks rolled their eyes when she initially announced she would take on 7 termer Deb Pryce. Totaling all the money spent on that race, and it was upwards of $12 million. Not to mention that it is probably  the top seat most likely to switch next year, in no small thanks to the ’06 campaign .

    4. I just found out that in addition to being spunky and outsider and “send a message of change” and all that, Ogonowski is also running hard right on immigration.  That makes me want to puke.

      Now I have to hope it’s a low turnout election, with neither indies nor Dems bothering to show up, cause a high turnout for an immigration demagogue would send a terrible message to DC.

    5. Paul Hackett showed Dems how to win in 2005, and then Ned Lamont did the same in 2006.  If Niki Tsongas shows Dems how to lose, and they take that message to heart as well, she might do us all some good.

      However hard their races were and however much Hackett and Lamont’s campaigns may have energized the party, to say they showed the way to win when they both lost doesn’t make a lot of sense.  If you’re going to make this point at least talk about Carol Shea-Porter or John Hall.

      1. Remember, Congress’ approval rating really didn’t tank until they took up Bush’s immigration bill with mostly Democratic support.  That’s the bigger problem, not Iraq (though that was poorly handled also).

    6. Paul Hackett showed Dems how to win in 2005, and then Ned Lamont did the same in 2006.  If Niki Tsongas shows Dems how to lose, and they take that message to heart as well, she might do us all some good.

      However hard their races were and however much Hackett and Lamont’s campaigns may have energized the party, to say they showed the way to win when they both lost doesn’t make a lot of sense.  If you’re going to make this point at least talk about Carol Shea-Porter or John Hall.

    1. because my impression is that in every one of them, the Dem challenger was soft and mushy on Iraq.

      For Kilroy, I got that impression from a post on this site and nowhere else.  For NY-26 and IL-06 and TN-Sen I’m pretty sure I’m right, and I think I’m right on PA-06 and CT-04 as well, though I’m least sure about CT-04, as I seem to recall Iraq being Shays’ only real vulnerability, so Farrell may have been forced to go there whether she wanted to or not.

      Anyway, since many people have wondered how I assembled that list, there it is.  Challengers who ran well-funded campaigns but who were mushy and “cautious” on Iraq.  As contrasted with the challengers who ran unfunded campaigns but embraced vigorous contrast on Iraq, and who tended to wildly overperform expectations even if they mostly still lost.

  8. Tsongas: 54%
    Ogonowski: 45%
    3rd party candidates: 1%

    There will be another election for this seat in 2008. Any word on if Ogo would try again?

  9. 59-38 Tsongas early on with 3% in.

    Of course, this would be different if these precincts are from Lowell (8.6% more Dem than the district as a whole), or Dunstable (13.7% more Repub than the district)…

  13. FYI, John Henning, the dean of Mass TV political reporters (he works for WBZ in Boston), just said on WBZ-radio  that “if the current trend continues, Tsongas will win by single digits — 5 or 6 points.”

    The returns show Tsongas winning Concord (an affluent suburb in the western part of the district) by three to one, but struggling in the blue collar towns just outside Lowell, including Dracut, which is Ogonowski’s hometown.

    And:

    …VERY light turnout in Lowell (Paul Tsongas’s hometown, home to about 17 percent of the district’s population). Niki Tsongas leads by 56-43 in Lowell right now. Not bad — considering that the last time there was a real race in this district (Dem. Chet Atkins narrowly edging GOPer John Magovern in 1990), the Dem actually lost Lowell, thanks to pissed off blue collar voters. Ogonowski looks to be running better in Lowell than most Republicans do, but (according to the early returns) not quite well enough to win the election.

    We’ll see if it’s true.

  14. Tsongas 51~54, I’ll give 52 for a single number
    Ogonowski 42~48, I’ll give 46 for a single number

    I haven’t been following this race closely, but oh well.

  15. Looks like the final margin according to Lowell Sun.

    Considering the 3% that went to the two independent candidates were probably almost entirely from Democratic-leaning voters, the margin in a two-way race would’ve ben 54%-46%, which is not terrible in this district.

    Didn’t Kerry Healy lose this district to Deval Patrick by roughly the same margin last year?

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